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“My operating assumption is that policymakers are rapidly figuring out that the “burn down the village to save the village” strategy of sacrificing the economy to prevent the spread of the virus won’t work much longer.  I already detect a change in sentiment in this regard.  I would watch the clinical trial that is about…

The Fed couldn’t do it. Impeachment couldn’t do it. The tariff wars couldn’t do it. Even earnings couldn’t do it. What did it? Fears of a global pandemic over the Chinese originated coronavirus and its anticipated impact on growth prospects in China and around the world. And what is the it? A long-awaited market correction.…

January 9, 2020 Accounts managed by Hangar 4 Partners LLC Eagle I, L.P. ended the both December quarter and full year strongly (if you’d like our actual performance data please call).   The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite were up about 8.5% and 12.2% for the quarter and 29% and 35%, respectively for…

Investment Commentary- Good Riddance to the Month of May!! Most of the investing community, having expected a deal between the US and China to end their trade dispute, are sorely disappointed to this point. Not only has a deal not surfaced, but the trade tensions and rhetoric have escalated. This in turn has resulted a…

Despite this last week’s dramatic market selloff, President Trump has already won the intermediate and longer-term trade war with China. For over a year now, his administration has been strongly suggesting that firms either build new manufacturing facilities in the United States, or, at the very least, move to non/low-tariff countries. In the short run,…

Should we sell in May and go away? The old Wall Street adage came about because in the short run, stock prices are driven by earnings surprises, and generally, the summer quarter, with vacations and such, is seasonally weaker, meaning it is more difficult to beat estimates and therefore catalyze stock prices. In the long…

A number of leading companies have posted March earnings, and offered outlooks, allowing for a few initial conclusions. First, the quarter was impacted by global slowing, notably the Chinese market, but certainly not that market exclusively. Second, the near-term slowing has led to a cautious tone about the June quarter from many managements. Third, the…

While headlines regarding the ongoing trade negotiations with China dominate, and certainly influence, daily stock market moves, the market’s resilience can most likely be attributed to investor expectations for a second half re-acceleration of earnings growth. More importantly from a stock picking perspective, this anticipation of future earnings performance is predicated on the continuing growth…

By now, investors have figured out that economic growth has slowed substantially. Even members of the Federal Reserve have figured this out, and have altered policy appropriately. Newly dovish Fed pronouncements now suggest no more rate hikes in 2019, and no more balance sheet activity, outside of normal policy moves, after September. This, in recent…