Posts by Manager

Investment Commentary- Good Riddance to the Month of May!! Most of the investing community, having expected a deal between the US and China to end their trade dispute, are sorely disappointed to this point. Not only has a deal not surfaced, but the trade tensions and rhetoric have escalated. This in turn has resulted a…

Despite this last week’s dramatic market selloff, President Trump has already won the intermediate and longer-term trade war with China. For over a year now, his administration has been strongly suggesting that firms either build new manufacturing facilities in the United States, or, at the very least, move to non/low-tariff countries. In the short run,…

Should we sell in May and go away? The old Wall Street adage came about because in the short run, stock prices are driven by earnings surprises, and generally, the summer quarter, with vacations and such, is seasonally weaker, meaning it is more difficult to beat estimates and therefore catalyze stock prices. In the long…

A number of leading companies have posted March earnings, and offered outlooks, allowing for a few initial conclusions. First, the quarter was impacted by global slowing, notably the Chinese market, but certainly not that market exclusively. Second, the near-term slowing has led to a cautious tone about the June quarter from many managements. Third, the…

While headlines regarding the ongoing trade negotiations with China dominate, and certainly influence, daily stock market moves, the market’s resilience can most likely be attributed to investor expectations for a second half re-acceleration of earnings growth. More importantly from a stock picking perspective, this anticipation of future earnings performance is predicated on the continuing growth…

By now, investors have figured out that economic growth has slowed substantially. Even members of the Federal Reserve have figured this out, and have altered policy appropriately. Newly dovish Fed pronouncements now suggest no more rate hikes in 2019, and no more balance sheet activity, outside of normal policy moves, after September. This, in recent…

The first part of any new year, particularly the month of March, tends to be a seasonally weak period for the stock market. Perhaps it’s the first quarter earnings fears (the weakest for many companies) or tax collections impacting consumer spending (though refunds do offset this somewhat) or sometimes newly installed politicians after a fall…

Now that we are essentially through earnings season it has become apparent who has the goods in terms of growth and who doesn’t.  Unlike the rising tide lifting all boats, the December quarter bear market created hazardous seas, sinking some ships (companies) while others managed to power right through.  Those firms leading the innovation cycle…

  Now that we’ve had the opportunity to hear from company managements regarding December quarter performance and initial 2019 outlooks, we can conclude that results were decidedly mixed. Those factors that hampered growth in December- trade war fears and interest rate concerns, leading to a dramatically declining stock market, are apparently very transitory. Since the…

This past week was an important period for various earnings announcements. Influential technology companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported, and all disappointed investors in some form or fashion. Even leading healthcare companies, like Amgen and Illumina, disappointed. And yet the Market rallied strongly. The Federal Reserve took a decidedly dovish posture on both…