Posts by Manager

While headlines regarding the ongoing trade negotiations with China dominate, and certainly influence, daily stock market moves, the market’s resilience can most likely be attributed to investor expectations for a second half re-acceleration of earnings growth. More importantly from a stock picking perspective, this anticipation of future earnings performance is predicated on the continuing growth…

By now, investors have figured out that economic growth has slowed substantially. Even members of the Federal Reserve have figured this out, and have altered policy appropriately. Newly dovish Fed pronouncements now suggest no more rate hikes in 2019, and no more balance sheet activity, outside of normal policy moves, after September. This, in recent…

The first part of any new year, particularly the month of March, tends to be a seasonally weak period for the stock market. Perhaps it’s the first quarter earnings fears (the weakest for many companies) or tax collections impacting consumer spending (though refunds do offset this somewhat) or sometimes newly installed politicians after a fall…

Now that we are essentially through earnings season it has become apparent who has the goods in terms of growth and who doesn’t.  Unlike the rising tide lifting all boats, the December quarter bear market created hazardous seas, sinking some ships (companies) while others managed to power right through.  Those firms leading the innovation cycle…

  Now that we’ve had the opportunity to hear from company managements regarding December quarter performance and initial 2019 outlooks, we can conclude that results were decidedly mixed. Those factors that hampered growth in December- trade war fears and interest rate concerns, leading to a dramatically declining stock market, are apparently very transitory. Since the…

This past week was an important period for various earnings announcements. Influential technology companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported, and all disappointed investors in some form or fashion. Even leading healthcare companies, like Amgen and Illumina, disappointed. And yet the Market rallied strongly. The Federal Reserve took a decidedly dovish posture on both…

Since the Christmas Eve trading day low, the Market has rebounded dramatically, about 15% or so, as measured by the NASDAQ Composite Index. Catalysts for the change in sentiment include a more dovish Federal Reserve, optimism over some solution to the trade and tariff wars, and a sense that while global economic growth is slowing,…

Companies will begin reporting their December quarter results, and offer March quarter and initial 2019 expectations next week. On the whole, we anticipate the announcements to be positive, though we do expect some bumps in the road. Four factors are likely to have impacted the December quarter- a general global slowing of industrial growth, the…

The current volatility and dramatic market declines causing heightened investor anxiety belies an important, accelerating, innovation cycle that deserves to garner more investor attention. But as we all know investing can be a very emotional business. The notion that global growth is slowing and macroeconomic issues abound doesn’t change the fact that these cyclical forces…

Several weeks ago we mentioned that from a macro perspective, the market was being influenced by earnings concerns, global economic slowing, fears about rising interest rate, and the on-going trade war with China. Well, as we approach the end of the year, a number of these issues are either behind us, or about to be.…