Posts by Manager

Since the Christmas Eve trading day low, the Market has rebounded dramatically, about 15% or so, as measured by the NASDAQ Composite Index. Catalysts for the change in sentiment include a more dovish Federal Reserve, optimism over some solution to the trade and tariff wars, and a sense that while global economic growth is slowing,…

Companies will begin reporting their December quarter results, and offer March quarter and initial 2019 expectations next week. On the whole, we anticipate the announcements to be positive, though we do expect some bumps in the road. Four factors are likely to have impacted the December quarter- a general global slowing of industrial growth, the…

The current volatility and dramatic market declines causing heightened investor anxiety belies an important, accelerating, innovation cycle that deserves to garner more investor attention. But as we all know investing can be a very emotional business. The notion that global growth is slowing and macroeconomic issues abound doesn’t change the fact that these cyclical forces…

Several weeks ago we mentioned that from a macro perspective, the market was being influenced by earnings concerns, global economic slowing, fears about rising interest rate, and the on-going trade war with China. Well, as we approach the end of the year, a number of these issues are either behind us, or about to be.…

A number of uncertainties that prompted much of the Fall market correction and associated volatility are behind us. Notably, the Federal Reserve has backed off its hawkish position to raise interest rates aggressively, and the investor perception is they will be more data dependent and cautious. Bond yields may have peaked. Earnings season has come…

Market worries over decelerating growth, earnings outlooks, rising interest rates, and tariff wars have all been discounted into stock prices in some measure at this point. Valuations and multiples have been compressed, in some cases fairly dramatically, and market volatility has increased. Yet, one does get the sense after a number of speeches by various…

After a week that felt like nothing but pure volatility, it may be helpful to focus on company commentary regarding earnings outlooks. In short, things are slowing, particularly among industrial firms and automobile manufacturers. Geographically, one of the worldwide growth engines, China, is sputtering. Investors are having a hard time reconciling these facts with the…

One data point does not make a trend, but yesterday’s powerful move off the bottom for many biotech equities offers some promise. Using the NASDAQ Biotech ETF, the IBB, as a proxy, one can clearly see the powerful move yesterday. Is this a new market leadership role, or a dead cat bounce? Todays action is…

While there have certainly been pockets of strength early into the third quarter earnings season, the overall tone has been largely negative, particularly as pertains to forward guidance. Pockets of weakness include industrials, autos, homebuilders, and consumer-related companies to name a few. Naturally, firms that serve these markets have been under pressure. One conclusion that…

  What if the Federal Reserve is wrong about inflation? What if instead of heading higher- curtesy of rising labor costs, inflation heads lower- owing to excess industrial capacity and slowing worldwide economic growth? What if the investor fears over rising interest rates and yields is wrong? What if the stock market leadership change away…