Posts by Manager

Thus far in 2025, the stock market performance went from being very narrow, led by a handful of AI-related infrastructure stocks, too much broader participation throughout the quarter.  Ironically, our relative performance during the quarter was initially hampered by investor concerns centered on those industries likely to be disrupted by the implementation of AI, notably…

The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI)- The impact of China’s DeepSeek AI announcement   The Chinese announced the availability of their entry into the AI race, DeepSeek, purportedly, on par with the leading US offerings from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others.  The real breakthrough here is that, according to the Chinese, this AI software can run…

Stumbling at the finish, stumbling at the start some random thoughts   For investors that hoped for a Santa rally, 2024 closed with a lump of coal.  Essentially, the market gains enjoyed since the November election results evaporated in the month of December.  Investor’s focus on Fed policy, rising long term interest rates, and future…

Fed to the Rescue!!! Once again, the Federal Reserve did exactly what was expected, lowered the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps while stating the pace of change would slow. At the same time, the bond marketing fearing the Fed “swing and a miss” on inflation again, sold off, raising longer term yields. And of…

Where’s the Beef? Having been through the third quarter earnings reports and into the fourth quarter guidance, one must ask, “where is the beef?” Or said differently, the expectations for accelerated revenue and earnings growth attributed to the AI (artificial) revolution have yet to materialize.  Except for a few companies that are leading the charge,…

We Are Back! After a long hiatus we are back to comment on this extraordinary bull market!  Despite the sense that most everything is overvalued, the transformative nature of the technologies just beginning to be deployed will likely show in hindsight, earnings forecasts may have been too low. There will be starts and stops, acceleration…

We are in the midst of what has heretofore been the seasonally weakest time of the year for stock performance.  In as much as stock performance is driven by earnings surprises, it is not too far a stretch to understand this weakness.   Historically, the summer quarter, packed with employee vacations, makes outsized achievements more difficult,…

The News headlines recently have been dominated by the new virus variant dubbed delta. Extremely contagious, it’s said on average one person can infect nine others, but with similar morbidity factors to the regular way flu.  Those that need worry are the very elder, the very obese, and anyone with co-morbidity concerns. The initial market…

This past week saw bonds rally and yields fall as some of the ever-present inflation fears were quelled.  This, after all, is the bet that growth investors are making in their pursuit of earnings performance.  That the Federal Reserve position, inflation is transitory owing to one-time demand excesses and various supply chain shocks, will be…

The last several decades have seen dramatic and accelerating change in the investment and economic landscape.  Looking back twenty-five years or so, the commercialization of the internet in the 1990’s gave rise to the ability to disintermediate virtually everything- how we live, how we play, how we consume, how we communicate, how interact to name…